Retail Reboot:
How to Win the Holidays
in a Changed World
ANKURA’S 2025 HOLIDAY PLAYBOOK
The 2025 holiday shopping season has already begun to unfold against a backdrop of complex and challenging economic currents that feel remarkably like the sentiment-driven downturns of 2023.
Holiday 2025 – Déjà vu?
Is it 2023 Again?
Survey Reflects 2023 Trends
in Consumer Spending
Holiday survey reveals a stark similarity in consumer sentiment between 2025 and 2023, marked by a pessimistic economic outlook and a greater willingness to adapt shopping behaviors in response to financial pressures. Consumers are actively seeking less expensive alternatives, deeper post-holiday discounts, and more flexible purchasing options to manage spending.
Pressured Pockets
Gen Z Drives Pullback
in Holiday Spending
Consumers are pulling back on spending due to the widespread impact of inflation, rising household debt, unemployment, and ongoing uncertainty about the U.S. economy. These financial stressors continue to affect personal finances, prompting individuals to reassess priorities, reduce discretionary purchases, and seek greater value in everyday transactions and seasonal shopping decisions.
Beyond the Deal,
Answer Shoppers’ Needs
Shoppers Seek Value, Personalization,
Omnichannel Experience
Retailers must focus on and communicate to shoppers with a clear emphasis on value, personalization, and a seamless omnichannel experience. These elements are essential for driving conversions, building brand loyalty, and maintaining relevance in a competitive market. Strategic messaging and tailored engagement will be key to capturing cautious consumer interest.
2025 Holiday Game-Changers
What Shoppers Expect
Black Friday Fading Relevance
Massive Discounts or Bust
Consumer Pessimism, Caution
Make Shopping Exciting Again
Disposable Income Squeeze
Compelling Value, Attractive Deals
My Shopping, My Way:
The Seamless Expectation
Amazon’s share of preference as a holiday shopping destination is rising – potentially at Target’s expense.
Amazon’s continued and growing dominance highlights the need for an integrated omnichannel strategy that guides consumers from discovery to purchase across all channels.
Dining out less will help fund consumers' holiday shopping this year
33% of shoppers plan to cut holiday spending, with 74% of them reducing dining out to make ends meet.
Loyalty, not just hot deals
Promotions and loyalty programs are more influential than last year. Shoppers aren't just chasing discounts—they're seeking brands that reward them consistently and personally.
AI usage is important not just to shoppers but also to retailers
91% of consumers say AI is important but is equally important to retailers as a tool to reduce fulfillment costs and is crucial to provide a personalized customer journey.
Black Friday is less relevant, but it doesn’t have to be
While shoppers have started purchasing earlier, nearly 80% of survey respondents tell us that with targeted and substantial discounts AND door busters, they would leave the digital channel and get back into the stores.
Key Survey Findings and Strategic
Retailer Responses
The 2025 Ankura holiday survey reveals key insights into retail challenges and shifting consumer behavior, offering strategic guidance for retailers.
🪙 Inflation Fatigue
Pessimistic consumers, especially lower-income ones, cite inflation as the main reason for reduced holiday spending. Retailers must lead with strong value propositions.
🍽️ Trade-Off Spending
One-third of consumers plan to cut back on other spending, primarily dining out, to fund holiday purchases. Focus on providing compelling reasons for consumers to direct their discretionary spending toward your brand.
🎓 Debt-Driven Decisions
Student loan debt impacts holiday spending for 40% of borrowers, disproportionately affecting younger and lower-income shoppers. Emphasize value and affordability in marketing messages – especially to younger consumers.
🛍️ Black Friday Burnout
Black Friday's importance continues to decline, but large discounts could have impact; shoppers would expect discounts exceeding 30% to make Black Friday relevant. Meet consumer expectations for deep price cuts, using these promotions to drive both online and in-store traffic.
💳 Loyalty Wins
Promotions and loyalty programs are more influential than last year, especially for younger shoppers and families struggling with inflation. Offer exclusive promotions and first access to sales to reward your most valuable customers.
🤖 AI is In
Almost all shoppers (91%) say AI will influence their holiday shopping, with a significant impact reported by younger shoppers. Embrace and leverage AI to enhance the shopping experience.
🎁 Gift Cards Popularity
Gift cards are a top category for holiday purchases. Retailers must promote their own branded cards to keep purchases with gift cards “in-house”.
🏬 Retail
Giants Rise
The dominance of Amazon, Walmart, and Target continues, with Amazon's share of mentions growing largely at Target's expense. Focus on a seamless, unified omnichannel experience that guides customers from discovery to purchase across all channels.
🍔 Dining Cutbacks
Among the shoppers planning to spend less, 74% will cut back on dining out to afford holidays shopping. Both mall-based retailers and restaurants must adapt and offer promotions and bundled discounts that make both experiences feel like a worthwhile treat rather than a luxury to be cut.
🌧️ Pessimism Persists
Those planning to skip holiday shopping in 2025 are markedly more pessimistic about the economy, citing inflation and food prices as the primary reasons for skipping holiday spending. Cultivate long term trust by addressing inflation anxieties with ongoing value, practical solutions, and year-round loyalty programs.
🪙 Inflation Fatigue
Pessimistic consumers, especially lower-income ones, cite inflation as the main reason for reduced holiday spending. Retailers must lead with strong value propositions.
🍽️ Trade-Off Spending
One-third of consumers plan to cut back on other spending, primarily dining out, to fund holiday purchases. Focus on providing compelling reasons for consumers to direct their discretionary spending toward your brand.
🎓 Debt-Driven Decisions
Student loan debt impacts holiday spending for 40% of borrowers, disproportionately affecting younger and lower-income shoppers. Emphasize value and affordability in marketing messages – especially to younger consumers.
🛍️ Black Friday Burnout
Black Friday's importance continues to decline, but large discounts could have impact; shoppers would expect discounts exceeding 30% to make Black Friday relevant. Meet consumer expectations for deep price cuts, using these promotions to drive both online and in-store traffic.
💳 Loyalty Wins
Promotions and loyalty programs are more influential than last year, especially for younger shoppers and families struggling with inflation. Offer exclusive promotions and first access to sales to reward your most valuable customers.
🤖 AI is In
Almost all shoppers (91%) say AI will influence their holiday shopping, with a significant impact reported by younger shoppers. Embrace and leverage AI to enhance the shopping experience. For retailers, AI can work as a tool to reduce fulfillment costs and provide a unique customer journey with personalized product recommendations on your website, AI-powered chatbots for customer service and using data to forecast trends and optimize inventory.
🎁 Gift Cards Popularity
Gift cards are a top category for holiday purchases. Retailers must promote their own branded cards to keep purchases with gift cards “in-house”.
🏬 Retail
Giants Rise
The dominance of Amazon, Walmart, and Target continues, with Amazon's share of mentions growing even larger. Focus on a seamless, unified omnichannel experience that guides customers from discovery to purchase across all channels. Retailers must refine their digital strategies to compete with Amazon’s online dominance, especially among older demographics.
🍔 Dining Cutbacks
Among the shoppers planning to spend less, 74% will cut back on dining out to afford holidays shopping. Both mall-based retailers and restaurants must adapt and offer promotions and bundled discounts that make both experiences feel like a worthwhile treat rather than a luxury to be cut.
🌧️ Pessimism Persists
Those planning to skip holiday shopping in 2025 are markedly more pessimistic about the economy, citing inflation and food prices as the primary reasons for skipping holiday spending. Cultivate long term trust by addressing inflation anxieties with ongoing value, practical solutions, and year-round loyalty programs.
The 2025 holiday season isn’t just about selling
— it’s about connecting.
Retailers who embrace empathy, tech innovation, and shopper-first strategies will turn uncertainty into opportunity and win hearts, carts, and loyalty.
ANKURA PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT
Delivering End-to-End Solutions to Companies at Critical Inflection Points
The Performance Improvement team partners with private equity, lenders, and management to drive rapid EBITDA and cash flow improvement. Using our 3D (Diagnose, Define, Deliver) framework, we assess opportunities, develop sustainable goals and operating plans, and implement solutions. Our expertise spans diverse industries, including Retail, Direct-to-Consumer, Healthcare, CPG, Services, Education, Manufacturing, and Logistics. Our experienced operators and consultants address strategic and operational challenges, delivering data-driven, transformative results quickly and efficiently.
Ankura Consulting Group, LLC is an independent global expert services and advisory firm that delivers services and end-to-end solutions to help clients at critical inflection points related to conflict, crisis, performance, risk, strategy, and transformation. The Ankura team consists of more than 2,000 professionals serving 3,000+ clients across 115 countries who are leaders in their respective fields and areas of expertise. Collaborative lateral thinking, hard-earned experience, expertise, and multidisciplinary capabilities drive results, and Ankura is unrivaled in its ability to assist clients to Protect, Create and Recover ValueTM.
For more information, please visit, ankura.com.